The Kasich Effect: The State of the 2016 Race

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Patrick Murray's picture

The Kasich Effect: The State of the 2016 Race

If there is anyone Senator Ted Cruz wants out of this race more than Donald Trump, it's Ohio Governor John Kasich. 

 

A week ago Senator Ted Cruz went on national television and told a CNN News Correspondent that John Kasich has no realistic path to victory in winning the Republican nomination. Cruz isn't wrong though. The math doesn't add up for the Governor. In fact, it never really has. Therefore, Kasich would need to win over 88% of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination. Kasich has only won his winner-take-all state of Ohio. He's doing more poorly than Senator Marco Rubio did before he dropped out on March 15 after losing his home state of Florida to billionare businessman Donald Trump. Kasich won runner-up to Trump in New Hampshire, but that's not good enough in a year when the rules of establishment politics have come crumbling to the ground. 

 

Here's what we do know: the longer John Kasich stays in the race the harder it will be for Cruz to beat Trump for the nomination. Cruz however can still lose the nomination no matter what Kasich does at this point. But he would prefer as many other Republicans even in the establishment for Kasich to exit the race. It's all in an effort to defeat Trump. The anti-Trump movement that has been brought on by establishment Republicans is a fight for the survival of the Republican Party. It's more than just about the 2016 race to the establishment. It's about the GOP remaining competitive in presidential elections for decades to come. If Trump becomes the nominee it will greatly fracture the Republican Party to the point of no return. Many establishment Republicans have decided that they either have to jump on the Trump train or stay at the station. Republicans are evenly divided on the idea of Trump being their nominee. To many GOP outsiders, new Republicans, new voters, or disaffected voters Trump is their guy without a doubt. But to the establishment they've gone to Cruz rather than Kasich. Not because they don't like Kasich, but because they just don't want Trump. So they are going for Cruz because he has the only feasible path in defeating Trump. Even Mitt Romney has been making robocalls for the Texas Senator. And Romney is very likable in establishment circles. 

 

The second scenario, which is less likely is if Kasich drops out today. Literally today he would need to do it in order to stop Trump. A move like that would allow Cruz to catch up to Trump in his delegate lead and possibly beat Trump. But like I said before Kasich can still drop out today and Cruz could still lose the nomination. That scenario would just show that the majority of Republican voters have decided they want outsider Trump, and they want him bad. In general election match ups Hillary Clinton defeats Donald Trump easily in most polls. She has a much harder time up against Ted Cruz. But that doesn't mean she can't still beat either of them. Keep in mind the general election is eight months away. So anything can happen from now until then. We could dive into recession or a major terrorist attack can occur on the homeland. Things like that can definitely cause a general election voter to switch sides easily. That's why these next eight months are so critical. If you're a Democratic voter you want Trump to be the Republican nominee if you were to look at today's latest polls up against Clinton. Democrats fear Cruz because of his polling against Clinton. Ultimately, though only time will tell as this very long primary process continues. 

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